After 3rd may lockdown
According to one report, the 21-day lockdown won't be enough to control coronavirus spread in India.Instead, the lockout has to be extended to 49 days based on their statistical estimates, say researchers team.According to the University of Cambridge's Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, their research is based onthe understanding that the lockdown on 25 March disrupted all social interactions and restricted everyone to their home. They also admitted that this appears to be a "optimistic" view but it helps them to analyze the outcome.
The initial scenario is the current lockout of 21 days. Although it reduces the rate of infections, it doesn't do anything to avoid a revival when it comes to growing their number. They consider the likelihood of a revival after the lockdown is pretty high in this situation. In the second case, where the 21-day lockdown is accompanied by a 5-day relaxation and then accompanied by another 28-day lockdown, the researchers found that the number of infected people here too is not going down enough to avoid a resurgence.
Scenario 3 looks at 3 lockdowns. The first 21-day lockdown is followed by a 28-day lockdown, followed by an 18-day lockdown. Those three lockdowns are separated by rest periods of 5 days. Singh and Adhikari said, "This takes infectious numbers below 10 where clear touch tracing accompanied by quarantine can be effective in preventing a resurgence.
Scenario four which seems to be the strongest advocates for one long 49-day lockout.
This also takes down contagious numbers below 10.
Our key point is that lockout for three weeks is not going to be enough. Our model indicates that sustained lockdown cycles with periodic relaxation would reduce the number of cases to levels where individualized social interaction monitoring and quarantine will become feasible.
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